Iran War & Hormuz — 2026-07-18

Hormuz Transits Down 52% as US Disables Oil Tanker With Hellfire Missiles One Day Into Renewed Blockade

BLUFCENTCOM's kinetic enforcement against the Belma will likely keep Hormuz transits at least 40 percent below pre-blockade levels through July 25, as operators absorb that noncompliance now carries lethal consequences.

CENTCOM disabled M/T Belma, a Curacao-flagged tanker that the International Maritime Organization assesses as falsely flagged 1, firing Hellfire missiles into its smokestack on July 15 after the unladen vessel ignored repeated warnings while sailing toward Kharg Island 2. CENTCOM said forces also redirected two other compliant vessels during the first 24 hours after the naval blockade resumed at 4 p.m. ET on July 14 2. Kpler reported a roughly 52 percent week-on-week drop in confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings over July 10-12 as traffic shifted to Iranian and dark routes 3, a decline Lloyd's List Intelligence, cited by USNI News, separately put at 51.9 percent for July 9-16, with Iran-linked transits down nearly 30 percent 1.

Analysis
CENTCOM's strike on Belma signals routine kinetic enforcement against noncompliant tankers, not just interdiction and redirection, raising the risk calculus for any operator weighing a transit; crossings will likely stay at least 40 percent below the pre-blockade baseline through July 25 as owners and insurers keep diverting to Iranian and dark routes rather than test enforcement. High confidence rests on convergent primary reporting, CENTCOM's own operational account and independent commercial tracking data on the traffic decline, though the drop may partly reflect broad market risk aversion and insurance costs rather than enforcement alone. The strike marks the first confirmed U.S. kinetic action against a defiant vessel since the blockade's reimposition, replacing a prior pattern of unpunished defiance. Should transits recover above that threshold before July 25, Washington faces pressure to escalate interdiction tactics to restore blockade credibility.

4 sources

U.S. Disables Ship a Day Into Blockade, Strait of Hormuz Transits Hit Low As Risk Appetite Falls - USNI News
U.S. Forces Disable Non-Compliant Vessel in Arabian Gulf - U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
Hormuz traffic turns defensive: Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings declined by around 52% week on week over 10 to 12 July - Kpler
US military disables first tanker in Arabian Sea since blockade was reimposed - The Hill