Iran War & Ceasefire — 2026-04-10

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Remains Paralyzed Despite Ceasefire; Oil Holds Above $100

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered despite the US-Iran ceasefire, with only 5-7 vessels transiting daily compared to the pre-conflict norm of 120-140. Over 600 ships remain stranded in the Gulf. The UAE state oil company's CEO stated the strait "is not open." Dated Brent crude reached $131.97/barrel on Thursday, with North Sea Forties at $146.09, exceeding the 2008 record. WTI continues trading above $100.

Analysis
The ceasefire has not restored the economic lifeline it promised; transit volumes remain at less than 5% of pre-conflict levels. Dated Brent at $131.97 exceeds the 2008 record, making this the most severe energy price shock since the global financial crisis. The concurrent Russian oil sanctions waiver expiry compounds global supply pressure from two directions simultaneously.
3 sources
  1. Shipping in Strait of Hormuz at a standstill despite US-Iran ceasefire - Al Jazeera
  2. What this real-world oil price says about the level of stress in the energy market - CNBC
  3. Crude Awakening: Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Fails to Quell Energy Markets as Oil Holds Above $100 - MarketMinute

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