Armed Conflict — 2026-11-01

Zelensky and Erdogan Discuss Black Sea Security and New Grain Corridor in Istanbul

BLUFIt is unlikely that Ukraine, Russia, and the US hold a trilateral negotiating session by November 20, as Kremlin noncommitment and the absence of confirmed logistics leave Zelensky's stated timeline without a counterpart.

At a joint news conference in Istanbul on Saturday, Turkish President Erdogan said attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea are unacceptable "regardless of who carries them out," and called on all parties to act responsibly, according to Al Jazeera and Dawn 12. Both outlets reported that Ankara has sent Russia and Ukraine a proposal to end such strikes but says neither has acted on it 12. Ukrainian President Zelensky told the same conference he had agreed with Erdogan to work on the Black Sea grain corridor, per Anadolu Agency, and accused Russia of complicating the situation at sea 13. Zelensky also said Ukraine is preparing for trilateral talks with Russia and the US in the first half of November, and that he and Erdogan discussed involving Turkiye and holding meetings there 3. Al Jazeera cited Secretary of State Rubio as saying the US is reviewing Turkish and Indian proposals to restart grain shipments 1.

Analysis
Zelensky says Kyiv is preparing for talks in the first half of November, but the Kremlin has not committed to a date or venue, and Rubio publicly doubts a negotiated peace is achievable. Lavrov showed Kallas no willingness to concede at the G20, leaving little basis for a session on short notice. It is unlikely that Ukraine, Russia and the US hold an in-person trilateral negotiating session between November 2 and November 20, 2026. Confidence is moderate, resting on Kyiv's stated intent and conflicting Kremlin scheduling remarks on venue, with no confirmed invitations or delegation announcements. Reporting is thin in original sourcing: Anadolu carries Zelensky's account, and the other outlets converge because they shared access to the same news conference. The Zelensky signal may be aimed at Washington and Ankara to keep the US process in place, and Moscow may accept a UAE session once G20 friction subsides. If a session convenes by November 20, Kyiv and European capitals must prepare positions and Turkey or the UAE must host. If not, partners should plan for continued air and energy defense needs through winter.

5 sources

Turkiye's Erdogan urges Russia and Ukraine to stop Black Sea attacks - Al Jazeera
Erdogan slams Black Sea shipping attacks - Dawn
Zelenskyy says he agreed with President Erdogan to work on Black Sea grain corridor - Anadolu Agency
Erdogan calls Black Sea ship attacks unacceptable after substantive Zelensky talks - Kyiv Independent
Erdogan warns against Ukraine conflict spilling into Black Sea, urges responsibility - Xinhua