EU Accession — 2026-10-06

EU Could Open Two More Accession Negotiating Clusters for Ukraine Next Week

BLUFHungary's repeated blocking of screening results and unmet legislative preconditions make it unlikely the EU will open a new Ukraine accession cluster by October 16.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said on October 5, after an EU-Moldova Association Council meeting, that the next two clusters for Ukraine and Moldova could open at an intergovernmental conference next week, once Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passes an education bill and member states speed up procedures, according to New Voice of Ukraine citing Suspilne 1. RFE/RL Europe editor Rikard Jozwiak wrote on X on October 2 that October 13 could be another enlargement "Super Tuesday" if everything goes smoothly 2. UNN, relaying that post, reported that he also expects Montenegro to close three chapters and Albania one 2. Hungary had blocked approval of the screening results for Ukraine's second and third clusters at meetings in July and on September 8 1.

Analysis
An intergovernmental conference opening a new Ukraine cluster by October 16 is unlikely. Kos made the opening conditional on the Rada passing an education bill and on member states compressing procedure, and neither is done. Hungary has blocked screening approval for the second and third clusters at three meetings since July, so one more objection would stall the file again. Confidence is low: the October 13 date rests on a single journalist's forecast and a conditional official remark, with no conference or Council agenda item visible. Kyiv's target has narrowed from all six clusters in June to two in October, and the Commission now ties opening to Rada action rather than Hungary alone. Kos's public naming of next week may instead mean Budapest's objection was already managed privately, making a pre-packaged opening more plausible than the record shows. If a cluster opens, Kyiv keeps its end-of-year target and ministries begin chapter-level work. If not, Kyiv must rebuild its timeline and decide whether to press for a route around the veto.

3 sources

EU could open two accession clusters for Ukraine and Moldova next week - New Voice of Ukraine
The EU may open two more negotiating clusters for Ukraine on October 13 — journalist - UNN
Potentially, this looks like another EU enlargement 'Super Tuesday' on October 13, if everything goes smoothly. - Rikard Jozwiak (RFE/RL Europe editor), post on X