Armed Conflict — 2026-10-15

Bulgaria Summons Russian Ambassador After Fourth Drone Attack on Merchant Ships in Bulgarian Waters

BLUFAnother drone strike on a merchant ship in Bulgarian waters is likely before the end of October, raising pressure on Sofia to seek NATO surveillance support and on shippers to reprice Ukrainian coastal routes.

Drone attacks hit two merchant ships off Bulgaria overnight, and Bulgarian officials said the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity sank near Krapets with 11 of its 16 crew missing, per CNN 1 and The Moscow Times 2. The Ukrainian-owned, Maltese-flagged Chelsea 3 was struck by three drones off Byala, and Prime Minister Rumen Radev said all 15 crew were rescued 13. Radev said Sofia lacks conclusive evidence of attribution but that the outcome "benefits the Russian Federation," and he summoned Ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova 14. The Moscow Times reported that Mitrofanova cited no Russian Defense Ministry information on the attacks and did not rule out a third-party provocation 2. A week earlier, drones hit two ships in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, and one sank with its 10 crew lost 12.

Analysis
Another drone attack is likely to damage or sink a merchant ship in Bulgarian territorial waters or the exclusive economic zone between October 15 and October 31. Confidence is high because four outlets report consistent facts on both incidents and the strikes follow a repeated pattern along coastal routes Ukrainian trade now depends on, though all draw on the same Bulgarian government briefings and are not fully independent. The missing-crew count on the HS Dignity has risen, a second ship was hit the same night, and Moscow's ambassador left third-party provocation open while Sofia still withholds formal attribution. Ukraine or another third party could be behind some strikes, as Defense Minister Stoyanov concedes Sofia cannot tell whether the drones are Russian or Ukrainian. If another attack occurs, Bulgaria, NATO and the EU face pressure to deploy surveillance and escorts, and insurers and shippers must reprice Black Sea routes.

4 sources