Indo-Pacific — 2026-10-13

Taiwan Preparing for the Worst as China Begins Live-Fire Drills Across Bohai Yellow East China and South China Seas

BLUFChina's current live-fire drills are coastal artillery exercises hundreds of nautical miles from Taiwan, and a named large-scale joint exercise around the island is very unlikely by October 31, 2026.

Defense Minister Wellington Koo told reporters on Monday that Taiwan is closely monitoring Chinese live-fire drills and assesses they will be held near China's coast, involving only artillery units 12. China's Maritime Safety Administration issued no-sail notices for five areas in the Bohai, Yellow, East China and South China seas 13. Sources diverge on dates: Hong Kong Free Press reports October 12-20 4, while CNA reports October 12-17 1. Taiwan's Maritime and Port Bureau said the East China Sea and South China Sea areas lie 159 and 588 nautical miles from Taiwan, and it expects no impact on nearby shipping 12. Beijing has not linked the drills to President Lai Ching-te's Saturday National Day speech, but China's defense ministry said Sunday that PLA exercises deter "Taiwan independence" moves 13.

Analysis
China is very unlikely to announce a named large-scale joint exercise around Taiwan by October 31, 2026. Confidence is moderate: reporting consistently describes coastal artillery training far from Taiwan, and Beijing frames it as routine deterrence, not a response to Lai's speech, though Beijing's future intent cannot be observed. Sourcing is thinner than the four-outlet count suggests, since the Taipei Times repeats CNA and the Japan Times and Hong Kong Free Press add little independent reporting. The conflicting date ranges are unresolved. The drills may instead be a low-cost signal while Beijing saves a named exercise for a later trigger such as an arms sale or a Lai transit. Maritime notices closer to Taiwan, or a Taiwan Affairs Office escalation, would force Taipei and shippers to reroute and raise readiness. Otherwise current posture holds.
4 sources
  1. PLA drills not close to Taiwan: Defense Minister Koo - Focus Taiwan (CNA)
  2. PLA drills this week far from Taiwan: Koo - Taipei Times
  3. Taiwan says it is closely monitoring a series of Chinese live-fire drills - The Japan Times
  4. Taiwan preparing for the worst as China begins live-fire drills - Hong Kong Free Press

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