European Security — 2026-06-10

Survey Finds Only One in Ten Europeans Now View United States as an Ally

BLUFCollapsed public trust in US security guarantees strips European leaders of domestic political cover to negotiate credible new defense commitments at the upcoming G7 and NATO summits.

The ECFR published a survey on June 10 covering 15 European countries finding only 11 percent of respondents now view the United States as an ally, down from 22 percent recorded immediately after Trump's November 2024 election victory, with majorities in all 15 countries doubting the US would come to their aid if attacked 1. Approximately one quarter of respondents now categorize the US as a rival or adversary, while roughly half characterize it as a necessary partner 1. The survey was released ahead of G7 and NATO summits scheduled in France and Turkey in coming weeks 1. Earlier ECFR polling from November and December 2024, spanning 14 European states, documented respondents converging on "necessary partner" as the predominant US characterization, including in traditional Atlanticist strongholds Poland and Denmark 2. Mainstream party supporters in Germany, Spain, and France recorded downward revisions in that earlier polling, while AfD supporters moved in the opposite direction, toward increased US favorability 2.

Analysis
European leaders arrive at G7 and NATO summits with publics whose US trust has collapsed to a historic low, undercutting the political foundation for any new transatlantic defense commitment. The decline is structural: "necessary partner" has displaced "ally" even in Poland and Denmark, previously the most durable Atlanticist holdouts. Mainstream constituencies in Germany, France, and Spain are driving the erosion while AfD-aligned voters move toward greater US favorability, fracturing the coalitions that underpin European defense posture. Data rests entirely on ECFR as sole primary source. A credible US security signal at either summit could shift the "ally" framing upward without any underlying structural change.

3 sources

Only one in 10 Europeans now see US as an ally, survey suggests - The Guardian
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump - European Council on Foreign Relations
A new low: Europeans no longer see the US as an ally and blame Trump - The Local