Middle East — 2026-10-12

Saudi Arabia Pakistan and Turkey Launch Operation Yemen Dawn Under Makkah Joint Defence Agreement

BLUFOperation Yemen Dawn is very unlikely to reach Sanaa by year-end, as the Makkah pact delivers Saudi political cover and Pakistani air defense rather than the ground force a capital offensive demands.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey agreed on Monday at an emergency Riyadh meeting to move immediately to implement collective defence commitments and "rapid deployment" of forces in the Kingdom, according to a joint statement relayed by Khaleej Times 1. The same day, coalition spokesman Maj Gen Turki al-Malki said 100 fighter jets supported Yemen's government offensive, Operation Yemen Dawn, and 324 "high-value" targets had been destroyed 2Saudi-led coalition says joined Yemen govt offensive against Houthis" data-source="Gulf News" data-url="https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/world%2Fgulf%2Fsaudi%2Fsaudi-led-coalition-says-joined-yemen-govt-offensive-against-houthis-2-1.500698816" data-rt="secondary" data-mbfc="mixed" data-otype="newspaper">3. Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi said the operation aims to retake Sanaa 2. Al Jazeera reported only modest gains near Bab al-Mandeb, that Ankara has not confirmed troop deployments, and that Islamabad described its role as support, including "reconnaissance" 4. CommandEleven reports 30,000-40,000 Pakistani troops in the Kingdom, citing a Pakistani official quoted by Reuters 5.

Analysis
Coalition-aligned Yemeni forces are very unlikely to take control of Sanaa between October 12 and December 31, 2026. Confidence is high because reporting consistently places gains on the Bab al-Mandeb coast, Houthi forces held after the Dhubab losses, and a multi-pronged assault on the capital lacks the ground cohesion and morale it needs. The coalition's jet and target claims echo a single spokesman, while Al Jazeera's skepticism is the independent check. Activating the Makkah pact, previously left uninvoked after the Jazan strike, gives Riyadh political cover and Pakistani air defence and advisers, not a combat force. It may be mainly signaling to deter Iran. Insurers and navies should plan for a months-long contest with continued Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and shipping.

6 sources

Pakistan, Turkey agree to rapid deployment of forces in Saudi Arabia under Makkah pact - Khaleej Times
Coalition: 100 Warplanes Took Part in 'Yemen Dawn' Operation, Destroyed 324 Targets - Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi-led coalition says joined Yemen govt offensive against Houthis - Gulf News
Yemen's government is on the attack against the Houthis. What has changed? - Al Jazeera
The Makkah Pacts First Test: Operation Yemen Dawn, Pakistans Role, and Irans Shrinking Map - CommandEleven Intelligence
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan activate collective deterrence measures under Mecca defense pact - Iran International