China Claims Expanded Control Beyond 24 Nautical Miles Around Scarborough Shoal and Deploys WZ-7 Drone

Analysis
China Coast Guard forces will likely use water cannon, ramming or boarding against a Philippine government vessel at or near Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal by October 31. Beijing's claim of "control" beyond 24 nautical miles gives cutters a stated basis to act well outside the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea, and the WZ-7 adds persistent tracking of Manila's approaches. Friday's blocked Sierra Madre resupply shows Beijing will enforce its reading of the provisional agreement. Confidence is high, though USNI News and Global Times supply the two independent collection streams; the other outlets add none. Since September 11, China has moved from standing posture to declaratory enforcement. The drills may instead be signaling aimed at the ASEAN exercise and domestic audiences, with enforcement limited to shadowing and blocking. If force occurs, Manila and Washington would likely face Mutual Defense Treaty consultations and escort decisions; otherwise unescorted resupply continues.