UK Expels Russian Diplomat in Retaliation After FSB Accused British Official of Espionage

Analysis
The FSB's choice to frame van Rensburg's alleged collection as economic espionage, rather than a political or military charge, signals Moscow is actively tracking UK operations against Russian financial or sanctions-evasion networks. London's six-week delay reflects a decision calibrated to close the cycle rather than extend it. Internal debate over quiet normalization may have driven that gap, making this expulsion the closure of a diplomatic option as much as a proportionality move. Per single-source AP reporting, Russia initiated the cycle and the UK matched, a sequence Moscow has precedent for treating as closed, making a further Russian diplomatic restriction within 60 days unlikely. Post-2022 drawdowns leave few conventional expulsion targets on either side, pushing residual pressure toward asymmetric channels.