Indo-Pacific — 2026-10-16

North Korea Tests Two Types of Submarine-Launched Strategic Cruise Missiles in First SLCM Test in Nearly Three Years

BLUFNorth Korea is likely to conduct another missile launch by mid-November, as Wednesday's dual-mode SLCM test signals an accelerating cadence aimed at demonstrating survivable second-strike options.

North Korea's state media KCNA reported on Thursday that the Missile Administration test-fired two types of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles off its east coast on Wednesday, the first publicly disclosed SLCM firing since January 2024 12. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesperson Capt. Jang Do-young said the military tracked both missiles from before launch to the end of flight, with one fired from a vertical launch system and the other from a torpedo launcher 23. KCNA photographs included the submarine Hero Kim Kun Ok on the surface, though KCNA did not name the launch platform, and Kim Jong Un did not attend 12. Al Jazeera cited KCNA saying one missile was a Pulhwasal-3-31, which the North said it test-fired from land last week 4. The launches followed ballistic missile firings from the Pyongyang area on Monday 1.

Analysis
North Korea will likely conduct another publicly reported ballistic or cruise missile launch between October 17 and November 15, 2026. Confidence is moderate, resting on four consistent outlets and at least 11 launch events this year, though no advance indicator marks the next one. Sourcing is solid on the launch itself but thin on independent verification of the platform. Pyongyang framed the firing as a routine readiness inspection without Kim present, which lowers the political cost of repeating it, and the vertical launcher points toward salvo capability, with a submarine-launched ballistic missile test the step analysts watch next. The test may instead be a one-off showing of a modified diesel platform, with timing set by Pyongyang's response to South Korea's hypersonic test rather than a submarine schedule. South Korean, Japanese and US planners should hold warning and maritime surveillance at current tempo and prepare for a submarine-launched ballistic missile event.

4 sources

North Korea Tests First Submarine-launched Cruise Missile in Nearly 3 Years - USNI News
N. Korea tests 2 types of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles: KCNA - The Korea Times
North Korea tested two types of sub-launched cruise missiles, state media says - The Japan Times
North Korea tests two submarine-launched missiles, state media reports - Al Jazeera