Africa — 2026-05-31

Ethiopia Holds National Election With Ruling Party Expected to Dominate Amid Ongoing Conflict

BLUFExcluding Tigray from federal representation for a sixth consecutive year eliminates the last institutional check on Addis Ababa's unilateral interpretation of the 2022 Pretoria accord.

Ethiopia's 7th General Election opened on June 1 with more than 50 million registered voters 12; the electoral board excluded Tigray and parts of Amhara due to ongoing conflict 23. Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, holding more than 500 of 547 House seats, is projected to win another majority; it withdrew candidates from more than two dozen constituencies, with an Addis Ababa activist telling CNN the tactic was aimed at opening space for opposition MPs 23. EZEMA leader Eyob Mesafint confirmed to CNN that his party's members had been arrested and intimidated ahead of the vote, and the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party's head called the process "far from genuine and democratic" 23. The African Union deployed 73 observers led by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who arrived Saturday 2.

Analysis
The PP's candidate withdrawals in roughly two dozen constituencies manufacture the appearance of competitive legitimacy without altering the parliamentary arithmetic. Abiy emerges with another supermajority and five more years of consolidated federal power. Six years of exclusion have stripped Tigray of the institutional leverage to enforce the 2022 peace accord, which has already broken down, and this election extends that disenfranchisement by another term. Opposition leaders placed specific arrests and intimidation on record ahead of the vote, raising the evidentiary bar for international normalization of the outcome. The seat withdrawals may instead reflect genuine internal recalibration, and a marginally more opposition-inclusive parliament could impose meaningful legislative constraint over the coming term.
5 sources
  1. Ethiopia's election: Parties, coalitions and candidates explained - Al Jazeera
  2. Ethiopia heads to the polls for an election expected to be dominated again by Abiy's ruling party - ABC News
  3. Ethiopias PM won a Nobel Peace Prize, stoked a civil war and is set for re-election - CNN
  4. Ethiopia heads to the polls for an election expected to be dominated again by Abiy's ruling party - The Washington Post
  5. The 7th General Election - National Election Board of Ethiopia

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