Adversary Intelligence — 2026-08-06

Shin Bet Warns of IRGC Influence Operations Targeting Israeli Elections

BLUFIsrael very unlikely stands up a formal counter-interference body before October 27, leaving its response to Iranian, Russian, and Chinese influence operations fragmented across agencies with no unified mandate.

Shin Bet director David Zini told a closed Knesset Intelligence Subcommittee briefing on Monday that Iran and other countries are attempting to interfere in and undermine Israel's October 27 election, an effort Zini rates the agency's second-most-concerning threat after mass-casualty terror attacks 1. Israeli media reports cited in the briefing also named Russia, China, and Turkey as potential sources of influence activity 2. Subcommittee chairman Boaz Bismuth said there is "substantial fear" that candidates and elected officials could be physically harmed during the campaign 1. A State Comptroller's report found that, as of March, Israel still has no national policy or designated government body to counter foreign election interference, and that the National Security Council stopped working the issue in August 2025 while the Shin Bet did not begin preparations until January 12. Israeli commentary published by Israel Hayom and JNS assessed that Tehran's operation relies on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run social media networks and AI-generated content, and does not favor either side of Israel's political divide but instead aims to deepen social division 34.

Analysis
Zini's warning obligates Israeli security services to expand monitoring resources toward IRGC-linked networks before October 27, but the absence of a designated coordinating body very likely leaves that response fragmented through the election. Israel will very unlikely establish a formal national policy or lead agency for countering foreign election interference before polling day, since the gap has persisted nine years without institutional resolution despite repeated comptroller warnings. Moderate confidence reflects converging reporting from Israeli security correspondents on the classified briefing's substance, though the underlying policy inertia rests on a single comptroller assessment rather than independently confirmed bureaucratic indicators. Absent a lead body, response falls to ad hoc coordination between Shin Bet, the Central Elections Committee, and the president's office.

4 sources

Shin Bet chief said to warn Iran could meddle in Israeli election, target candidates - The Times of Israel
FOREIGN THREAT: Shin Bet Warns Iran, Russia, China Target Israeli Elections - The Yeshiva World
How Tehran is preparing to influence Israel's elections - JNS
How Iran is preparing to influence Israel's elections - Israel Hayom