Iran Conflict — 2026-03-17

Brent Crude at $102; War Drives K-Shaped Economy as US Gas Hits $3.79/Gallon

Brent crude hovered near $102/barrel, up over 40% since the war began, with Strait of Hormuz flows plunging from 20 million barrels/day to near zero. US gasoline averaged $3.79/gallon, up $0.87 in one month. Diesel topped $5/gallon for the first time since 2022, driving up trucking and food costs. Economists warned the oil shock is accelerating a K-shaped recovery where energy costs disproportionately burden lower-income households while defense and energy sectors profit.

Analysis
Oil prices volatile across digests: $103 (March 16) → $106 (early March 17) → $103.42 (1737 edition) → $102 (current). The initial shock premium is moderating as strategic reserve releases take effect, but Hormuz remains near-closed with tanker traffic down ~70%.

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