Middle East — 2026-07-22

Houthi Port Blockade Threat Against Saudi Arabia Reduces Tanker Activity Through Red Sea Gateway

BLUFHouthi forces will likely strike a Saudi-linked vessel in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb within 14 days of the July 20 blockade declaration, compounding freight and insurance costs for Riyadh's crude exports even before shots are fired.

Ship-tracking data from LSEG and MarineTraffic showed four tankers changed course in the Red Sea on Wednesday, two signaling a switch to the Suez Canal, after the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on Monday 1. Three additional tankers carrying Saudi crude for China and India made U-turns toward the Suez Canal on Tuesday rather than continuing past Yemen's coast, and a fifth vessel, the COSCO-managed vehicle carrier Liu Jiang Kou, appeared to turn away in the Gulf of Aden after signaling Jeddah as its next port 1. Ship broker Clarksons reported that several tankers loading at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port shifted toward the Suez Canal instead of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, while others held position awaiting instructions; tankers remained visible near Yanbu's anchorage 1. The EU's Aspides naval force advised on Wednesday that vessels linked to Israel, the United States, or Saudi Arabia face elevated attack risk and should limit AIS transmissions, while maritime security sources said they had received Houthi warnings to ships transiting the Red Sea since Monday 1.

Analysis
A declared blockade producing measurable diversions confirms Houthi threats are already reshaping tanker routing before any attack occurs. Houthi forces will likely conduct at least one attack on a vessel linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, or the US in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb within 14 days of the July 20 declaration. Moderate confidence reflects consistent behavioral indicators, rerouted tankers, an Aspides advisory, and direct warnings to ships, but no confirmed strike yet. Continued diversions toward the Suez Canal would compound insurance and freight costs for Saudi Arabia's eastbound crude even absent an attack, particularly for Yanbu's pipeline-fed exports.

2 sources

Oil tankers turn around, avoid Red Sea following warnings by Yemen's Houthis - The Jerusalem Post
More ships avoiding Red Sea gateway after fresh Houthi threats, data shows - Times of Israel