Global Economy — 2026-04-10

Oil Prices Rebound Toward $100 as Hormuz Remains Closed Despite Ceasefire

Brent crude rose 4.1% to $98.70 and US benchmark crude climbed 5.4% to $99.44 on April 9 as initial ceasefire optimism gave way to the reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could average above $100 throughout 2026 if the strait stays largely shut for another month. Only four to five ships transited the strait daily since the ceasefire, versus a prewar average of 100+. The continued energy disruption threatens a systemic inflationary spike across global markets.

Analysis
Goldman's projection of $100+ Brent throughout 2026 if Hormuz stays closed represents a structural rather than cyclical price floor. The gap between ceasefire announcement and actual shipping resumption is the market's core concern; diplomatic success without logistical follow-through delivers no price relief.
3 sources
  1. Doubts about the U.S.-Iran ceasefire push oil prices toward $100 and slow stocks - PBS NewsHour
  2. Oil prices hover around $100 as concerns about U.S.-Iran ceasefire persist - NBC News
  3. Goldman: Another Month of Hormuz Closure Means Over $100 Brent Throughout 2026 - OilPrice.com

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