Atlantic Council Analysis Warns Ukraine Faces Toughest Wartime Winter as Patriot Interceptors Run Dangerously Low

Ukraine faces its fourth wartime winter with Patriot interceptor stocks "dangerously low," leaving the country largely unable to defend against Russian ballistic missiles, according to the Atlantic Council 1. President Zelenskyy has said Kyiv needs 300 Patriot missiles to get through the winter, and Carnegie's Michael Kofman told Bloomberg that Ukraine has "effectively run out of missile defense capabilities" relative to the threat 2. Efforts to close the gap have stalled: the U.S.-Iran conflict has drawn down the global interceptor pool, outreach to South Korea and Japan has produced no additional missiles, and a proposed U.S. licensing deal for domestic Patriot production would not address the immediate shortfall, Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged 2. Russia has increased ballistic missile production and introduced faster jet-powered drones since August, contributing to a rise in civilian casualties. Russian strikes have killed more than 80 people in and around Kyiv since early August 12. Bloomberg and the AP report Ukrainians are already stockpiling firewood, generators and supplies, with some planning to relocate or move abroad 34.