IC Operations & Tradecraft — 2026-10-23

Russia Says Moscow and Washington Discussing Prisoner Releases Through Intelligence Service Channels

BLUFHubbard's release was a discrete diplomatic gesture tied to the Witkoff visit, and it is unlikely that Russia or the United States releases another US-held prisoner before late December.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS that Moscow and Washington are "in dialogue" on releasing prisoners held in Russian penal colonies through intelligence-service channels, and he named no prisoners, according to The Insider 1. NPR reported that Putin said he freed Stephen Hubbard, 74, at Trump's request, announcing it as he met U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Saint Petersburg 2. Hubbard had been sentenced in 2024 to nearly seven years for alleged mercenary service in Ukraine 2. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. gave nothing "in return" and that no "swap" was necessary 2. Report.az, citing a February Russian Foreign Ministry statement, said exchange work runs through intelligence services and details should not be disclosed prematurely 3.

Analysis
We have high analytic confidence that Ryabkov's "dialogue" claim signals no working release pipeline, because he named no prisoners and the Foreign Ministry's standing position is that exchange details stay undisclosed until concluded. Hubbard's release was a discrete gesture tied to Witkoff's visit and to the diesel and sanctions track. Moscow gains leverage by describing intelligence-channel talks as ongoing while withholding names, and the sourcing is thin: The Insider and Report.az both relay Russian statements through TASS, and only NPR independently confirms the Hubbard release. It is unlikely that Russia or the United States releases another US citizen or US-linked prisoner from Russia between October 23 and December 22. Moscow may instead be preparing an exchange to stage around the mid-November three-way peace talks, with names withheld to protect sensitive terms, and a named prisoner in official statements would be the first sign. If one appears, State Department and hostage-affairs officials would treat sanctions relief as a working trade for detainees and press for more releases. Otherwise they can keep detainee cases separate from the peace and sanctions talks.

3 sources