Indo-Pacific — 2026-06-27

Former DNI Blair Reveals China Consistently Thwarted in Pentagon Classified Taiwan Invasion Wargames

BLUFBlair's disclosure narrows the policy-relevant question from whether China can take Taiwan to how long the amphibious lift shortfall preserves the deterrence margin.

Former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, in a Foreign Affairs essay published June 24, asserts that DoD wargames run over the past decade with classified systems from both sides consistently found China unable to conquer Taiwan 12. Blair contrasts those results with civilian think tank simulations that in some cases produced Chinese victories, attributing the discrepancy to models that assume delayed US response and overweight Chinese long-range missile numbers without accounting for available countermeasures 12. He cites a December 2025 Pentagon report identifying amphibious lift as China's primary shortfall, and states that while PLA forces have raised their capacity to inflict damage in simulations, they have not achieved the ability to seize and hold the island 1.

Analysis
The civilian-classified wargame divergence reflects systematic undercounting of US countermeasures and overweighting of Chinese long-range missile lethality, not neutral modeling error. Left unchallenged, those civilian results signal exploitable uncertainty to Beijing and erode allied investment. The December 2025 Pentagon report's independent identification of amphibious lift as the PLA's primary shortfall lends Blair's claim more weight than his access alone would supply. The PLA has expanded its capacity to damage Taiwan but has not closed the gap between damage and seizure. That gap is what preserves deterrence against full-scale invasion. Blair's framing, sourced solely to his Foreign Affairs essay, may reflect deliberate deterrence communication rather than dispassionate net assessment.

3 sources

The Mirage of China's Military Edge - Foreign Affairs
China Thwarted in Classified Wargames, Says Former U.S. Official - Domino Theory
The Mirage of China's Military Edge - RealClearWorld