Energy — 2026-08-12

Ukraine Distributed Generation Program Has Failed Building Only 700 MW of 7000 MW Target Says Former Grid Chief

BLUFUkraine's distributed generation program will very likely fall short of 2,000 megawatts by mid-November, leaving centralized power plants as exposed to Russian strikes as last winter.

Former Ukrenergo board chairman Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said on Espreso's "Teper Holovne" program that Ukraine has built only about 700 megawatts of gas-fired distributed generation against the 7,000-megawatt peak-cold deficit President Zelensky cited last winter 12. Kudrytskyi, who led Ukrenergo from 2020 to 2024 and said he presented the distributed-generation concept to top government leadership in 2023, put the cost of building even 3,000 megawatts of new capacity at roughly 1.8 to 2 billion euros, or 600,000 to 700,000 euros per megawatt 12. He attributed the shortfall to lost time, weak investor appeal in Ukraine's energy sector, and management and corruption problems, and said three months remain before the next heating season 12. At the current pace of construction he said Ukraine would need 10 to 20 years to compensate for generation capacity lost to Russian strikes; the shortfall cannot be fundamentally fixed before this coming winter 12. Zelensky said on August 8 that Russian strikes have damaged effectively every Ukrainian power plant 1.

Analysis
Ukraine very likely enters the 2026-2027 heating season with fewer than 2,000 megawatts of new gas-fired distributed generation installed, leaving the grid exposed to the concentrated-plant vulnerabilities Russian strikes have exploited since 2022, since three months of remaining lead time cannot close a gap that required years of financing Kyiv never mobilized against a buildout cost of 600,000 to 700,000 euros per megawatt. Confidence is low, resting on a single insider account with no independent government data on installed capacity, amplified but not corroborated by secondary Ukrainian outlets. Kudrytskyi, a former official with no current operational visibility, may be overstating the shortfall to press for investment or distance himself from decisions made during his own tenure. A missed threshold forces donors and Ukrenergo toward winter load-shedding and emergency import planning around the existing concentrated grid rather than a dispersed backup network.

3 sources