Oil Surges 7% to $96 as Trump Blockade Compounds Hormuz Supply Shock

WTI crude jumped 7% to $96.40 and Brent rose 6% to $96 after Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the Islamabad talks collapse. Goldman Sachs warned that another month of Hormuz closure would push Brent above $100 for the remainder of 2026, while Dallas Fed analysis projects WTI averaging $98 in Q2 and global GDP growth declining 2.9 percentage points annualized. Emergency strategic petroleum reserve releases are offsetting a 4.5-5 million barrel per day shortfall, but analysts caution the gap could widen to 10-11 million bpd if buffers run down.