EIA Sharply Raises Oil and Gasoline Forecasts, Expects $4.30 Peak Gas and $115 Brent Crude

The Energy Information Administration sharply raised its Short-Term Energy Outlook on April 7, forecasting retail gasoline to peak at $4.30/gallon in April and average over $3.70 for 2026. Brent crude is expected to peak at $115/barrel in Q2. Diesel is forecast at $5.80/gallon peak in April. Production shut-ins are projected to reach 9.1 million barrels/day in April. The EIA assumes the conflict does not persist past April and Hormuz traffic gradually resumes, with shut-ins falling to 6.7 million b/d in May.