European Security — 2026-04-25

France and Poland Plan Joint Nuclear Deterrence Exercise Simulating Strikes on Russia and Belarus

French Rafale B fighters armed with ASMP nuclear-capable missiles will conduct simulated nuclear strikes on targets in Russia and Belarus during joint exercises over the Baltic Sea and northern Poland, Rzeczpospolita reported on April 23. Polish aviation will conduct reconnaissance, target identification, and conventional strikes using JASSM-ER cruise missiles during the exercise. The drills follow a meeting between President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Gdansk on April 20, where they discussed Poland participating in France's nuclear deterrent through contributions to early warning and air defense systems. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated the exercises show Europe's aspiration for further militarization and nuclearization.

Analysis
The exercise will very likely proceed within three months; the unbroken record of announced NATO joint exercises and the political cost-to-reverse after the Gdansk summit commitment make cancellation implausible. The operational pairing of Rafale B ASMP missiles with Polish JASSM-ER conventional strikes, per Rzeczpospolita, is the most explicit nuclear-conventional integration drill between a NATO nuclear power and a non-nuclear eastern ally in alliance history. France is extending its nuclear umbrella through bilateral exercise while Germany builds conventional mass through its Responsibility for Europe strategy, forming parallel deterrence tracks independent of US nuclear posture. Peskov's militarization framing describes the form correctly and understates the substance: France practices an existing capability in new geography, not a new one. The exercises may also be primarily a domestic credibility signal for Tusk to Polish voters, rather than a structural shift in France's nuclear-sharing posture.

3 sources

France, Poland to Simulate Nuclear Deterrence Exercises Near Russian Borders - United24 Media
France Deploying Nuclear-Armed Rafale Fighters to Poland to Simulate Attacks on Russia and Belarus - Military Watch Magazine
Francuskie glowice w Polsce: znamy szczegoly wspolnych cwiczen i parasola atomowego - Wirtualna Polska