Global Economy — 2026-05-06
U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge 50 Percent Since Iran War Began With Hormuz Blockade
Regular gasoline averaged $4.48 per gallon Tuesday, up 31 cents in one week and 50 percent above pre-war levels, according to AAA. Iran's March 4 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the IEA called the largest supply disruption in oil market history, drove crude to $112 per barrel in early April from a pre-war level near $70. Prices fell for nearly two weeks following a mid-April ceasefire before reversing; the Trump administration's April blockade of Iranian oil ports removed supply that, per Rice University Baker Institute fellow Jim Krane, had been moderating global prices. CiberCuba reported that since the April 8 ceasefire Iran attacked commercial ships nine times and seized two container ships.
Analysis
The 4.48-dollar average, up 31 cents in a single week and 50 percent above pre-war levels, places U.S. gasoline prices at the highest sustained level since the 2022 peak, with a structural driver the 2022 episode lacked: a physically closed chokepoint. Prices willlikely remain above four dollars per gallon through the end of June 2026. Even a clean Hormuz reopening on day 30 would not push retail below four dollars by June 30 given refinery throughput lags and seasonal demand increase from summer driving. The Baker Institute assessment that the April oil-port blockade removed supply that had been moderating prices introduces a policy-feedback loop: the administration's own escalation is now the proximate cause of the domestic price surge, constraining its options for de-escalation. This connects to the Hapag-Lloyd story and the Cuba oil story as nodes of the same energy-shock transmission chain.
The 4.48-dollar average, up 31 cents in a single week and 50 percent above pre-war levels, places U.S. gasoline prices at the highest sustained level since the 2022 peak, with a structural driver the 2022 episode lacked: a physically closed chokepoint. Prices will