Energy — 2026-08-23
Iraq Targets 10 Million Barrels Per Day Oil Output and Diversifies Export Routes Away from Strait of Hormuz
BLUFIraq's parallel investment in bypass export routes signals Baghdad itself views formal OPEC+ quota approval before late March 2027 as unlikely.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said Friday the government aims to raise oil production to between 8 and 10 million barrels per day within six years, up from roughly 4 million bpd before the Iran-Iraq war 1234. Al-Zaidi sent a delegation led by the oil and finance ministers to Saudi Arabia the same day to press for a higher OPEC+ quota, ahead of a Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton capacity assessment due to OPEC by late September that will inform new 2027 baseline talks 14. To reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, Baghdad is expanding exports via Turkey's Ceyhan pipeline, currently carrying about 170,000 bpd, and working to resume shipments through Syria's Baniyas and Jordan's Aqaba, with a planned Baniyas pipeline estimated at four years and at least $15 billion, according to Reuters sourcing 14. Oil Minister Basim al-Abadi put July exports at about 49 million barrels, with shipments averaging roughly 2 million bpd since early August, the highest level since the war began, while Strait of Hormuz traffic remains well below pre-war levels despite April and June US-Iran ceasefire agreements 234.
AnalysisOPEC+ formal approval of an increased Iraqi quota before March 31, 2027 is
unlikely. The DeGolyer and MacNaughton capacity assessment does not reach OPEC's Secretariat until late September, compressing the window for baseline talks that typically span months amid competing member interests. Saudi Arabia's role as OPEC+'s de facto leader gives Riyadh effective control over any Iraqi increase, and Baghdad's history of exceeding prior quotas weakens its position. Iraq's parallel investment in Ceyhan, Baniyas, and Aqaba export capacity signals Baghdad is hedging against a slow quota outcome rather than betting on near-term approval. Confidence in this judgment is low given no public signal yet from Saudi Arabia or other members on how the capacity findings will be treated.
4 sources
- Iraq Aims to Boost Oil Output to 10 Million Barrels Per Day Within Six Years - Athens Times
- Iraq secures alternative oil export routes amid Hormuz disruptions - Shafaq News
- Iraq PM seeks oil production rise to 10m barrels a day - Arab News (AFP)
- Iraq aims to boost oil output to 8-10 million bpd in six years - BNN Bloomberg (Reuters)
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