Trump-Xi Summit Approaches with China Holding Upper Hand

Analysis
China enters the May summit having twice proven rare earth restrictions coerce without cost; the October truce codified that asymmetry, giving Beijing semiconductor self-sufficiency runway while Washington settled for stability optics. Czin's assessment that Beijing is "working backward from our midterm elections," corroborated across multiple named former officials, identifies a structural incentive to withhold breakthroughs as domestic U.S. vulnerability deepens toward November 2026. A concrete agreement on tariffs, technology, or Taiwan confidence-building by end of Q3 2026 is unlikely. Wang Yi's Taiwan warning signals Beijing will press for declaratory policy and arms sales shifts, not trade deliverables. Beijing's posture may instead reflect economic vulnerability: slower growth and incomplete semiconductor self-sufficiency give Xi incentive to secure stabilization before that window closes.