S&P 500 Down Only 2% Despite $100+ Oil; Analysts Warn Market Pricing Short War While Pentagon Seeks $200B Supplemental

Despite Brent crude surging above $100/barrel and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz — choking one-fifth of global oil supply — the S&P 500 was down only 2% year-to-date as of March 17, suggesting markets are pricing a short conflict. Forward earnings estimates hit record highs at $328.80/share with the index trading at 20.4x forward earnings. However, the S&P 500 fell 5% in March alone, posting its fourth straight losing week, and the Nasdaq dropped to six-month lows. The Pentagon submitted a $200B supplemental funding request to Congress — the war's first 11 days alone cost $12B — facing bipartisan resistance. Rep. Boebert declared she is 'a no on any war supplemental,' while Democrats refuse to fund a war they oppose, forcing Republicans to consider reconciliation to bypass the 60-vote threshold.