India NSA Doval Heads to Beijing for 25th Round of Special Representatives Talks Ahead of Xi India Visit

Analysis
Xi's attendance at the BRICS summit likely firms up by September 13, contingent on whether the Doval-Wang round produces border-management language both sides can confirm without seeming to reward the other's posture. Confidence is low, given the absence of any public confirmation from New Delhi or Beijing and conflicting field signals, including India's denial of a Taksing incursion against China's own "generally stable" characterization of the frontier. A breakdown in talks would likely push Xi's attendance toward a lower-level delegation, consistent with Beijing's pattern of tying leader travel to visible border progress; renewed friction in Arunachal Pradesh is the variable most capable of derailing the summit appearance. The talks may instead function as routine border-management maintenance rather than a precursor to political thaw. Confirmation would commit Indian leader-level bandwidth and security resources to a bilateral sideline meeting; absent it, New Delhi treats the SR round as technical-level and holds broader outreach in reserve. Sourcing rests on a single wire dispatch republished across outlets, not independent confirmation.