Indo-Pacific — 2026-05-15

CFR Analysis: More U.S. Allies Exploring Ties With China

BLUFAllied bilateral deal-making with Beijing likely continues degrading Washington's coordinating leverage over the next 90 days, with Marcos's South China Sea overture the sole signal threatening direct U.S. security commitments.

CFR reports nine allied governments across Europe, North America, and the Indo-Pacific have held leader-level meetings with Xi Jinping in Beijing since 2025. Concrete trade outcomes include China cutting canola oil tariffs from 85 to 15 percent following Canada's visit and agreeing to halve Scotch whiskey tariffs to 5 percent after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's January trip. CFR Senior Fellow Chris McGuire called the visits "more style than substance," telling the outlet that allied governments see "an open door to go to Beijing" and feel no pressure to advance de-risking from China. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told China US Focus he expects "a very, very serious restructuring" in Manila-Beijing relations and expressed openness to restart South China Sea energy exploration negotiations.

Analysis
Allied outreach to Beijing is expressive hedging, not structural realignment, but is cumulatively eroding Washington's capacity to coordinate pressure: no leader-level meeting produced a collective framework, and no ally shifted its security posture. Marcos's openness to restart South China Sea joint energy exploration stands apart: a potential concession in an active sovereignty dispute with direct U.S. military commitments. Beijing's selective tariff concessions may be calibrated inducements to fracture allied solidarity, with agency in Beijing rather than allied capitals. A coordinated G7 or Quad export-control regime is very unlikely within the next 90 days. Unilateral U.S. enforcement remains exposed to ally free-riding, and a surprise coordinated package would alter Beijing's calculus on technology access.

2 sources

Why Are More U.S. Allies Exploring Ties with China? - Council on Foreign Relations
Trump's treatment of US allies has weakened his negotiating position with Xi - Chatham House