Indo-Pacific — 2026-10-21

Chinese Navy Shadows USS Charleston Near Contested Sabina Shoal Amid Surge in South China Sea Encounters

BLUFBeijing's simultaneous pressure across the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, combined with Manila's refusal to seek transit permission, means another China-Philippines vessel collision or water-cannon incident will likely occur by late November.

The PLA Southern Theater Command said on Tuesday that USS Charleston "illegally intruded" into waters adjacent to Sabina Shoal without Chinese approval and that it dispatched forces to track and monitor the littoral combat ship 1234. USNI News reported at least eight China-Philippines close encounters across the South China Sea and Luzon Strait since early October 1. Reuters, via Al Arabiya, said the US Navy had not responded and that a China Coast Guard vessel rammed a Philippine refueling boat near the shoal last month, which China blamed on the Philippine side 2. Philippine Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad said no nation can require prior permission for lawful transit of international waters, without confirming the ship's location 4.

Analysis
We assess with high confidence, based on consistent reporting from four outlets and a recent ramming near the same shoal, that the Charleston shadowing adds a US dimension to a month of at least eight China-Philippines encounters. All four outlets trace to a single origin, the PLA Southern Theater Command statement, and the US Navy has not confirmed the transit. Sunday's Chinese operations near Pratas and Hualien show Beijing sustaining pressure on several fronts, and Manila's rejection of any prior-permission requirement leaves neither side a reason to yield. A China Coast Guard or PLA vessel will likely collide with, or fire a water cannon at, a Philippine government vessel in the South China Sea by November 20, 2026. Beijing may instead be publicizing routine tracking of one ship to signal deterrence, not preparing new physical confrontation. A collision or water cannon use would pressure Manila and Washington to invoke treaty consultations and adjust escorts and resupply near Sabina, while absent one, resupply can continue at the current posture.

4 sources

Chinese Navy Shadows USS Charleston Near Contested Sabina Shoal - USNI News
China sends naval forces to monitor US warship near disputed shoal - Al Arabiya (Reuters)
PLA Navy followed US vessel on patrol in South China Sea hotspot, Beijing says - South China Morning Post
China says tracked US Navy ship in Escoda Shoal - Philippine Daily Inquirer