Energy & Economy — 2026-11-09

Gas Prices Up Nearly 40 Percent to $4.15 Since Iran War Began, Highest of Any U.S. Election Day

BLUFPump prices will likely fall below $4.00 per gallon nationally by November 23, but will remain over a dollar above last year's level, sustaining the political cost through the holiday period.

The AAA national average for regular gasoline was $4.15 a gallon on November 3, up nearly 40% from $2.98 in February, before U.S. military action against Iran began on February 28, according to a Fortune-republished analysis by a USC professor 1. Forbes also reported the $4.15 figure as a record for an Election Day 2. AAA's own November 5 release put the average at $4.10, down 12 cents in a week and more than a dollar above a year ago, with WTI crude settling at $88.12 3. AAA stated the national average had never exceeded $4 in any prior November 3. CNBC reported that voters blamed Trump for their economic troubles 4.

Analysis
We have high confidence in this assessment, which rests on AAA's primary pricing data showing two weeks of declines, a $7.97 one-day drop in WTI to $88.12, and rising refinery output. Regular gasoline will likely fall below $4.00 a gallon nationally by November 23. Even so, a drop under $4.00 would leave pump prices more than $1.00 above last year, so the shock would persist into holiday travel. The average has eased from $4.48 in May to $4.10, yet stays about 38 percent above the pre-war $2.98 and set a November record. Fortune and Forbes figures are not independent of each other, though both converge with AAA. The recent decline may reflect seasonal demand softening and a temporary crude pullback rather than durable easing of Hormuz disruption, so prices could stall near $4.00 or rebound if talks fail. Hormuz transit remains the swing factor. If the average clears $4.00 by November 23, administration and congressional planners can ease pressure for fuel-price relief and reserve releases. If not, that pressure will build.

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