Arms Control — 2026-06-08

SIPRI Yearbook 2026 Finds States Increasingly Relying on Nuclear Weapons as China Expands to 620 Warheads and Arms Control Collapses

BLUFNew START's expiry and a third consecutive NPT Review Conference failure leave no institutional check on accelerating multi-state arsenal growth, with formal US-China nuclear risk reduction dialogue unlikely before mid-2027.

SIPRI's Yearbook 2026, published June 8, estimates 12,187 nuclear warheads globally as of January, with 9,745 in military stockpiles and between 2,100 and 2,200 on high operational alert on ballistic missiles 12. China's stockpile reached an estimated 620 warheads as of January, up 20 from the prior year; SIPRI identifies China as expanding faster than any other nuclear-armed state, with 775 land-based missile silos loaded or under construction 123. SIPRI additionally reports Beijing may now be deploying approximately 34 warheads with operational forces, up from 24 a year earlier 13. New START expired in February without a successor, and the 2026 NPT Review Conference ended May 22 as the third consecutive RevCon to close without an outcome document 12.

Analysis
The collapse of both bilateral and multilateral constraint architecture removes the last institutional friction on what SIPRI documents as an accelerating multi-state warhead expansion. All quantitative data derives from SIPRI; secondary press adds no independent collection. China's peacetime deployment shift to approximately 34 operational warheads and 775 active or planned ICBM silos is pressing US planners toward counterforce responses that would expand Russian and American arsenals in turn. A formal US-China nuclear risk reduction dialogue is unlikely by June 2027, at moderate confidence grounded in Beijing's non-engagement across three successive review cycles and the absence of pre-negotiation contact. China's incremental additions may instead represent deliberate signaling to compel US strategic engagement rather than reflect genuine parity pursuit. Absent dialogue, domestic advocates face fewer constraints on accelerating force posture changes that entrench the cycle.

4 sources

Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks - SIPRI
SIPRI says nuclear-armed states are expanding and modernising arsenals as escalation risks and arms control pressures grow - Defence Industry Europe
China adds warheads as nuclear powers 'walk away' from disarmament: SIPRI - South China Morning Post
SIPRI Yearbook 2026: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security