Indo-Pacific — 2026-09-10

Beijing Tells Manila to Stop Lying After Defense Secretary Exposes Chinese Diplomatic Note on South China Sea

BLUFBeijing's deniable pressure tactics and Manila's decision to publicly expose them likely will produce a new coercive incident in the South China Sea within 30 days.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. read aloud a handwritten note at the Seoul Defense Dialogue on Tuesday that rejected the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award as "illegal, null and void," calling the act "coercion, bullying and aggression" 123. The forum's organizer said the note came from a military attache at the Chinese embassy in Seoul, who passed it through a staff member; Chinese representatives attended the dialogue but were not listed as panelists or speakers 23. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning responded on Wednesday that "certain people in the Philippines" should "stop this grandstanding and lying" and protect bilateral relations, while telling reporters in Beijing she was not familiar with the "specific situation" 123. Philippine foreign ministry spokeswoman Analyn Ratonel said in Manila that the department "respect[s] the statement and views of Secretary Teodoro" 3. The exchange follows Beijing's June sanctions on Teodoro and a July incident in which the Philippine military accused Chinese coast guard personnel of striking a Filipino sailor with a wooden baton, a claim China disputed 23.

Analysis
Beijing's rebuke of Teodoro, delivered through an unattributed note passed via forum staff rather than formal diplomatic channels, indicates a preference for narrative control over formal escalation for now. The note may instead reflect an improvised move by an individual attache rather than coordinated policy, given Beijing's claimed unfamiliarity with the "specific situation." China likely will take a new coercive or escalatory action against the Philippines in the South China Sea within 30 days, extending the cadence set by June's sanctions and July's baton-strike incident. Confidence is moderate, resting on that near-monthly pattern but no confirmed preparation for a specific step. The account rests on one primary wire filing corroborated by two secondary outlets sharing the same quotes, without independent sourcing beyond the forum organizer. Beijing has shifted from punitive action against Teodoro personally to contesting his account publicly, raising the reputational cost of restraint and pressuring Manila and Washington to accelerate coast guard coordination if escalation follows.

3 sources

Beijing tells Manila to stop lying after minister exposes South China Sea note - South China Morning Post
War of words between China and Philippines over South China Sea claims - Associated Press (via ABC News)
Beijing tells Manila to 'stop lying' after minister exposes South China Sea note - The Korea Times