Iran Conflict — 2026-03-17

US Intelligence Assesses Iran Regime Consolidating Power Under IRGC Despite Bombardment

US intelligence assessments conclude the Iranian regime will remain intact, weakened but more hardline, with the IRGC consolidating control. Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle is dominated by veteran IRGC commanders including Hossein Taeb and Ahmad Vahidi. No major defections or internal fractures have been detected. An IRGC-run Iran could initially pose a bigger regional threat as it seeks to consolidate power.

Analysis
Tracks directly from 0706 digest's reporting on Mojtaba Khamenei's IRGC-dominated inner circle. The assessment that bombardment is strengthening rather than fracturing the regime contradicts the campaign's implicit decapitation logic.

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