China Could Erode Taiwan's Hold on Pratas Island Without Invasion as Maritime Incursions Escalate

Analysis
We assess with high confidence, based on consistent Taiwanese reporting of 13 incursions this year and an unchanged Chinese line that the patrols are routine, that Beijing is testing jurisdiction around Pratas rather than besieging it. Taiwan's coast guard will likely report at least one more Chinese coast guard vessel inside the restricted waters around Pratas between November 5 and November 30. No Chinese ship has yet demanded identification, inspected a supply run, or blocked a rotation or flight, and those acts would mark the shift from normalizing presence to enforcing access. Since July, activity has grown from a research-vessel pairing into a repeated pattern, and the Hushi and Meishan patrols off the east coast run the same script on a second front, stretching Taiwan's limited hulls. Incident facts converge across Taiwanese coast guard attributions, but the analytic framing rests on a single Radio Free Asia origin. Beijing may instead be building a domestic record of jurisdiction with no plan to restrict supply runs. Taipei should keep Pratas patrol boats and escorts at current readiness, and a halt would let it shift hulls back to Kinmen and the east coast.