Just Security Analysis: Iran's Security State Entrenching Despite U.S.-Israeli Strikes

Just Security published a detailed analysis showing Iran's IRGC is assuming comprehensive domestic control, validating prewar NIC assessments that military intervention would not topple the regime. The security apparatus is arresting individuals accused of aiding the U.S. or Israel, mirroring crackdowns from prior protest suppression campaigns. The prewar NIC assessment -- that neither limited nor prolonged campaigns would change leadership -- has been vindicated: new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei holds harder-line views than his father.