Adversary Intelligence — 2026-05-07

Western Intelligence Officials Report Russia Ramping Up Targeted Killings of Activists and Ukraine Supporters Across Europe

Three Western intelligence officials told AP that Russia's targeted killing campaign in Europe has expanded since 2022, now targeting Russian dissidents and Ukraine supporters in addition to military defectors. French court documents reviewed by AP show four Russian nationals surveilled activist Vladimir Osechkin's home in Biarritz in April 2025, in preparation for an assassination. Lithuanian prosecutors charged 13 people from at least seven countries over separate plots against Ukraine supporter Valdas Bartkevičius and Bashkortostan independence advocate Ruslan Gabbasov, and said the suspects were directly ordered by Russian military intelligence. A senior European intelligence official told AP the campaign carries "political authorization" from Moscow; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told AP he saw no need to comment.

Analysis
Russia's assassination campaign in Europe has expanded beyond military defectors to encompass dissidents, independence advocates, and Ukraine supporters, with GRU command authority confirmed in Lithuania and surveillance of an activist in France indicating institutional sanction rather than freelanced action. Per unnamed Western intelligence officials in a single-outlet account, a senior European official's attribution of "political authorization" from Moscow and the Kremlin's non-denial together point to deliberate direction, not rogue unit behavior. The plots may more plausibly reflect opportunistic GRU unit-level action under broad political cover than centrally directed expansion. At least one additional confirmed or attributed assassination attempt in Europe is likely within 60 days, driven by established operational tempo and the absence of any demonstrably constraining European deterrent.
4 sources
  1. Russia is ramping up its attempts to kill opponents in Europe intelligence officials say - Associated Press
  2. Russia is ramping up its attempts to kill opponents in Europe, intelligence officials say - ABC News
  3. Russia is ramping up its attempts to kill opponents in Europe, intelligence officials say - The Washington Post
  4. Russia is ramping up its attempts to kill opponents in Europe, intelligence officials say - WTOP News

View in full brief →

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE