Energy & Economy — 2026-07-10

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Plunges as US and Iran Resume Fighting

BLUFNear-total collapse of southern-corridor transits will likely persist through August 9, converting a tactical disruption into a structural rerouting of Gulf energy flows.

Traceable large-vessel crossings of the US-coordinated southern route have effectively halted since Tuesday, with no ship above 10,000 dwt transiting the corridor on AIS since July 7 and only five vessels tracked crossing between Wednesday and early Thursday, versus 45 on Monday and roughly 130 daily before the war, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward 1. CNBC reported 13 tankers crossed Wednesday against a prior weekly average of 33, with vessels either using Iran's controlled route or going dark 2. The IMO reported 6,000 seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels and said 136 ships and 2,900 seafarers have been evacuated to date, while Iranian health authorities reported 14 killed and dozens injured over two days of strikes across five provinces 3. Brent crude stood at $76.37 a barrel Friday morning, roughly flat on the week's gains after this week's disruption, which followed strikes on three merchant ships transiting Hormuz on Tuesday 12.

Analysis
Large-vessel transits through the US-coordinated southern corridor will likely stay below half the pre-war baseline through August 9, as Tehran's insistence on its northern route turns each transit into a bet on Iranian intentions. Persistent dark-shipping and route avoidance signal owners hedging against further strikes rather than testing a ceasefire, reversing last week's cautious probing, a judgment held with high confidence given concordant vessel-tracking data from separately sourced maritime intelligence collected through different methods. Some of the reported near-halt may reflect uncounted dark transits rather than true disruption. Sustained sub-50-percent volumes would push insurers and shippers toward committing to the northern route or alternative corridors as the new normal, while any rebound would signal the US Navy's escort posture is restoring confidence and forestall costly permanent rerouting.

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