Israel Warns US That Iran May Use Chemical Weapons on Missiles, Washington Questions Intelligence

Analysis
Israel's push to frame Iran's chemical program as the priority threat looks like lobbying aimed at Washington as much as a warning, and it lands while CENTCOM holds a strike plan that could execute as early as Wednesday. Every outlet relays one New York Times report, with no primary document or named official, so the fuller Jerusalem Post account adds no corroboration. US agencies dispute Iranian intent rather than capability, and unverified Israeli claims may harden skeptics who recall Iraq in 2002. Iran is very unlikely to use a chemical weapon in an attack on Israel or another state or its forces by December 4, 2026. Confidence is moderate, resting on consistent secondary accounts, no disclosed evidence of operational weaponization, and decades of Iranian stockpiling without use. The Home Front Command's lack of protective guidance suggests Israel itself does not expect an imminent attack, yet the warning may be sincere, drawn from real collection on missile-warhead work and shared without sources and methods, which would explain US and Gulf doubt. If Iran does use chemical weapons, Washington and Gulf capitals would move quickly to approve large-scale strikes. If it does not, the claim loses sway over the resumption decision and diplomacy on Hormuz and the nuclear file keeps its room.