Middle East — 2026-07-26

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to One Transit Per Day as Iran Attacks Shipping and US Blockade Continues

BLUFShipper avoidance of the Hormuz corridor, compounded by sustained US strikes on Iran, will likely keep crude above $100 a barrel through August 9.

Tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just one on Thursday, the lowest daily total since May 7 and down from three the day before, according to Kpler shiptracking data reported by Reuters, The National, and OilPrice.com 123. No vessels entered the strait that day; the sole transit was the VLCC New Giant, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude, which exited toward China's Rizhao port with arrival expected by mid-August 12. Bab el-Mandeb strait crossings moved the opposite direction, rising to 32 that day from 26 the day before, as Saudi Aramco began offering alternative crude loadings from Egypt's Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir and tankers including the naphtha carrier Torm Innovation rerouted toward the Suez Canal to avoid the Houthi threat in the Red Sea 12. The US military said it had completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, and crude prices climbed back above $100 a barrel 123. Marine Insight reported preliminary data showing crossings recovering to three per day on July 22 through 24 1.

Analysis
Crude prices will likely hold above $100 a barrel through August 9, as the drop to a single daily Hormuz transit signals shippers are avoiding the corridor outright rather than merely favoring Iran's northern lane, and a 13th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran points to sustained rather than easing pressure. This judgment carries low confidence, since it rests on one day's outlier reading that Marine Insight's preliminary figures for July 22-24 already show reversing toward a three-transit average, and the single-day count may reflect routine scheduling variance rather than a genuine shift in risk tolerance. Reporting traces to a single Reuters original, with other outlets republishing the same Kpler figures without independent corroboration. Insurers and charterers will keep pricing war-risk premiums into freight contracts while prices hold above $100, and a slide back below that threshold would let them roll back surcharges.
5 sources
  1. Strait Of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls To Lowest Level In Over Two Months - Marine Insight
  2. Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings fall to lowest level in more than two months, data shows - The National
  3. Hormuz Tanker Crossings Sink to Lowest Level Since May as War Risk Spikes - OilPrice.com
  4. Hormuz Tanker Crossings Slip to Lowest in More Than Two Months, Data Shows - gCaptain
  5. Hormuz tanker crossings slip to lowest in more than two months, data shows - Reuters

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