Indo-Pacific — 2026-05-31

India Cuts 2026 Monsoon Forecast to 90 Percent of Normal as El Nino Raises Drought Risk for 1.4 Billion

BLUFIndia's kharif growing season likely faces its worst monsoon deficit since 2015, compressing rural incomes and elevating food price pressure across a rain-fed agricultural economy supporting over 800 million people.

The India Meteorological Department on May 29 revised its second-stage forecast to 90 percent of the long-period average, down from 92 percent in April, and set a 60 percent probability of an outright deficient monsoon season 12. IMD assessed a 92 percent probability of El Niño development during the monsoon season, with moderate-to-strong intensity expected in the second half; positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions that could offset suppression effects are not strongly favored 1. The combined probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall stands at 84 percent, with June forecast below 92 percent of the long-period average, and only northeast India projected for normal rainfall 1. Earth sciences ministry secretary Ravichandran told reporters Friday the season would be the weakest since 2015; Business Standard reported that year's monsoon reached only 87 percent of the long-period average under El Niño 2.

Analysis
A deficient monsoon is likely through September 2026, with El Niño tracking toward moderate-to-strong intensity in the second half of the season. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions that have historically offset El Niño suppression are not favored this cycle. That leaves pulses, cotton, and coarse-grain kharif planting across the rain-fed core zone carrying elevated crop failure risk without a reliable irrigation backstop. Moderate analytic confidence reflects convergent physical modeling from the national forecast authority, with seasonal intensity contingent on ocean state evolution through July. A late-developing positive IOD could shift the outcome from deficient to below-normal, limiting the worst kharif losses. Deficient confirmation by mid-July compels emergency grain procurement and forces the Reserve Bank to revise food inflation projections ahead of the harvest assessment.
5 sources
  1. IMD revises monsoon forecast to 90% of LPA; 60% chance of deficient rainfall - Down to Earth
  2. India expected to see 90% of long-period average rainfall in 2026: IMD - Business Standard
  3. India Cuts Monsoon Forecast to 90% of Normal in Risk to Crops - Bloomberg
  4. IMD forecasts below normal monsoon in 2026, rainfall to be 95-90 pc of average - DD News
  5. Updated Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June-September, 2026 and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2026 - India Meteorological Department

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