Global Economy — 2026-05-15

NPT Review Conference Enters Week Two Amid Crosswinds on Nuclear Order

BLUFAbsent a breakthrough, the conference will almost certainly close by end of May without a consensus document, confirming the NPT's erosion as great-power competition outpaces any institutional fix.

The 11th NPT Review Conference entered its second week in New York on May 15, with Conference President Đỗ Hùng Việt delivering the first draft outcome document as delegations shift from prepared statements to line-by-line negotiations. The United States set an adversarial tone before the conference opened by forcing procedural votes on Iran-related issues, according to ELN analysts who attended the sessions, while a last-minute diplomatic effort over the preceding weekend averted an unprecedented vote on Iran's election as Vice President of the General Committee. All three largest nuclear weapons states, the United States, Russia, and China, have exchanged sharp accusations of undermining the treaty, with Russia criticizing France's proposed forward deterrence posture and Washington accusing Beijing of CTBT violations without engaging proposed clarification mechanisms. The EU agreed a 27-member joint position reaffirming all three NPT pillars but has not actively led negotiations, and States Parties have failed to reach consensus at the two preceding Review Conferences, leaving a 16-year gap without an adopted outcome document.

Analysis
The conference will almost certainly conclude without an adopted consensus document by the end of May, with structural blockers more severe than those that defeated the two preceding conferences. Iran's election as vice chair signals coordinated NAM resistance. Washington's early procedural votes, per ELN analysts with direct conference access, established a disruption posture before substantive negotiations began. New START's expiration and China's documented arsenal growth toward 1,000 warheads have closed the negotiating space Viet's zero draft was designed to exploit. The dysfunction may instead reflect a temporary spoiler alignment rather than terminal treaty failure, but a third consecutive failure accelerates withdrawal of political capital from the treaty process.

3 sources

Crosswinds Swirl Around 11th NPT RevCon in Week Two - Arms Control Association
ELN reflections: 2026 NPT Review Conference - European Leadership Network
Can the NPT Survive Amid Global Disorder? - The Diplomat