Energy & Commodities — 2026-05-24

Russian Crude Exports Rise as Hormuz Disruption Risk Increases

BLUFExpiration of the US floating-storage waiver is unlikely to be extended by end of June, tightening Russian export channels into a market already short 1.78 million bpd.

Russia's crude exports averaged 3.7 million barrels per day in March and April, with Urals prices running 67 percent above the same period last year, Lloyd's List editor-in-chief Richard Meade reported Thursday 1. Meade said exports rose as the United States waived certain sanctions on Russian crude in floating storage, a waiver set to expire in June 1. Strait of Hormuz weekly transits roughly doubled, from 25 (May 4–10) to 54 (May 11–17), though Lloyd's estimates one in six used fraudulently-flagged vessels 1. According to OilPrice.com's reporting on the IEA's May 2026 Oil Market Report, global supply is projected to fall 3.9 million bpd for the year, with roughly 10.5 million bpd of Gulf production currently offline and demand set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd 2.

Analysis
The US sanctions waiver on Russian crude in floating storage is unlikely to be extended by end of June. We hold that assessment with high confidence: the June deadline is fixed, no Treasury renewal signal has emerged, and Lloyd's List and IEA data, drawn from a single institutional primary with limited independent corroboration, converge on the scale of market impact. Lapsing removes a key export channel into a market already short 1.78 million bpd, and fraudulently flagged vessels, already one in six Hormuz transits, are positioned to absorb displaced sanctioned cargoes as routing pressure increases. A quiet renewal remains the administration's lowest-cost option if consumer price pressure outweighs sanctions objectives. Absent that, Chinese and Indian procurement officers face urgent resourcing decisions at materially higher spot costs.

4 sources

Russian Crude Exports Increase as Strait of Hormuz Transits Remain Low - USNI News
IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Oil Deficit Widens as Iran War Cuts Production - OilPrice.com
Russian Crude Exports Rise Amid Iran Deal Uncertainty - USNI News
Oil Market Report - May 2026 - International Energy Agency (IEA)