Technology — 2026-04-19

SK Hynix chairman warns HBM/DRAM shortage may persist to 2030 as AI demand outstrips capacity

SK Hynix chairman Chey Tae-won publicly assessed the global memory wafer shortage will persist to 2030, with present deficit above 20% of industrial demand. SK Hynix holds ~57% of HBM and ~32% of global DRAM market share and has locked in a roughly 20% 2026 price hike on HBM3E alongside Samsung. Major AI consumers including Microsoft and Google are pursuing five-year DRAM supply contracts to hedge. Samsung's P5 at Pyeongtaek does not come online until 2028, and most new fab capacity is optimized for AI workloads rather than conventional enterprise DRAM, meaning consumer electronics, automotive, and mobile allocations face a multi-year squeeze.

Analysis
Converging reporting and hyperscaler contract behavior, with Google and Microsoft pursuing five-year DRAM supply deals, shift AI-capex planning from cyclical-squeeze into structural-constraint framing. Fab capacity allocated to HBM4 and HBM4E for Nvidia Vera Rubin crowds out conventional enterprise and automotive DRAM, making non-AI memory prices very likely to sustain 15–25% year-over-year increases through 2026, with automotive OEM BOM exposure crystallizing by late Q3. Samsung's Pyeongtaek P5 offline until 2028 removes any credible capacity relief before then; whether DPA-class US industrial action to reshore HBM-grade fab becomes viable before the 2027 election cycle is the live policy question. Chey, however, carries a disclosed commercial interest: the 2030 scarcity horizon lands alongside locked-in HBM3E price hikes, and the claim may be as much contract-positioning as a physics-constrained forecast.

3 sources

SK hynix warns: Memory wafer shortage could last until 2030 - Cloud News
Chip wafer shortage will run through 2030 as AI demand overwhelms supply: SK Hynix chief - Network World
AI memory shortage may last until 2030 as demand outpaces supply - Prism News