China Posts 5% Q1 GDP Growth Beating Forecasts Despite Iran War Overhang

China's economy expanded 5% year-on-year in Q1 2026, surpassing the 4.8% consensus forecast, according to official data released April 16. GDP reached 33.4 trillion yuan ($4.87 trillion), with quarterly growth of 1.3% matching estimates. Retail sales grew 2.4%, accelerating from Q4 2025. Economists expect growth to slow to 4.7% in Q2 as the Iran war's disruption to energy markets and global trade filters through, potentially dragging full-year expansion to 4.6%.