Energy & Commodities — 2026-09-11

Saudi Arabia Reports Crude Oil Production Collapsed to 6.238 Million Barrels Per Day in August Lowest Since 1990 as Iran War Disrupts Export Routes

BLUFSimultaneous disruption of Saudi Arabia's two export corridors will likely hold output below 6.5 million bpd through September, shifting effective global spare capacity to producers outside the Hormuz-Red Sea squeeze.

Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC's secretariat that crude output fell 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million bpd in August, the lowest level since 1990 and a steeper drop than April's previous low, according to Bloomberg 1. Tanker-tracking data cited by Bloomberg showed exports fell roughly a third to about 3 million bpd, while Kpler figures reported by Al-Monitor put exports at 3.2 million bpd, the lowest in 13 years 23. Al-Monitor and Eurasia Review attributed the decline to reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic amid the US-Iran conflict and a Houthi-declared maritime blockade of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including this week's strikes on Saudi Aramco sites in Abha, Najran and Jizan that wounded 73 people 34. OPEC's secondary-source estimate placed August production considerably higher, at 7.276 million bpd, versus Saudi Arabia's self-reported 7.122 million bpd crude supply-to-market figure, which includes drawdowns from storage 2.

Analysis
Saudi output staying below 6.5 million bpd through September is likely by mid-October, when OPEC's next Monthly Oil Market Report publishes, since Hormuz and Red Sea corridors remain under simultaneous attack and Houthi strikes now hit Aramco processing sites directly rather than just shipping lanes, so the Yanbu pipeline workaround no longer fully insulates supply. Confidence is moderate: a single primary Bloomberg source, corroborated by independent tanker-tracking figures, but only relayed rather than independently verified by Yahoo Finance, Al-Monitor, and Eurasia Review. The wide gap between OPEC's secondary-source estimate (7.276 million bpd) and Riyadh's self-report suggests Saudi Arabia may be understating output to bolster its case for quota relief rather than reporting a purely war-driven collapse. A confirmed sub-6.5 million bpd September reading would push energy-security planners and price forecasters to price in sustained Brent pressure above $100 and weigh strategic-reserve releases, while a rebound above that threshold would ease pressure to intervene.

4 sources

Saudis Tell OPEC That Output Slumped Again to Lowest Since 1990 - Bloomberg
Saudi Arabias crude output falls to lowest level since 1990 - Yahoo Finance
Saudi Arabia's oil production slumps to lowest in 36 years as war bites - Al-Monitor
Saudi Oil Production Plunges To Lowest Level Since 1990 - Eurasia Review