Brent Oil Surges 16 Percent Weekly to $105 as Iran War Chokes Strait of Hormuz Flows to Historic Low

Analysis
Brent's 16 percent weekly surge to $105 follows the IEA's classification of the Hormuz disruption as the largest supply shock in history, with 10.1 mb/d removed from global supply. Brent remaining above $100 through May is unlikely: the forecaster revised sharply from likely, noting that three prior Hormuz disruption episodes, including Abqaiq 2019 and the 2024 Houthi Red Sea closure, saw crude retreat below the spike level within four to six weeks as SPR releases and demand destruction took hold. The structural difference this cycle is a sustained double blockade rather than a single-event spike. IEA member states hold roughly 1.2 billion barrels in emergency reserves, sufficient to offset current lost loadings for approximately four months, making the question whether SPR deployment begins before or after consumer-state economies absorb the demand shock.