Iran War — 2026-04-02

Oil Prices Surge Past $100 as Trump Speech Extends War Timeline

Crude oil prices jumped sharply after Trump's primetime address signaled two to three more weeks of conflict, with WTI rising 2.24% to $102.36/bbl and Brent gaining 3.24% to $104.44/bbl. Analysts at Axios warned of a $200/bbl worst-case scenario if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June, with Macquarie assigning 40% probability to that outcome. Strategic petroleum reserves and Russian/Iranian oil exemptions are expected to lose effectiveness by mid-April, potentially doubling the current 4.5-5 million bpd supply loss. KOSPI plunged 4.47% and the Korean won weakened on the news.

Analysis
Brent at $104 approaches the $110 threshold that triggered demand destruction in 2022. Analysts flagging 'two to three more weeks' as a floor rather than ceiling reflects market distrust of administration timelines; the original 'days not weeks' framing from early March has been overtaken by events.
3 sources
  1. Trump Iran speech recap: President again says war is nearly over - CNBC
  2. Oil worst-case scenario: $200 if Hormuz remains closed - Axios
  3. KOSPI Plunges 4.47% to Close at 5,234.05 - Seoul Economic Daily

View in full brief →

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE