Global Economy — 2026-06-28

Oil Prices Drop 4% as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Recovers With 72 Ships Transiting in 24 Hours

BLUFHormuz transit recovery has collapsed the war-risk premium faster than most analysts projected, making a Brent close above $78 unlikely within ten days absent a major strait re-closure.

Brent crude fell roughly 4% through June 26 to near $72 a barrel and WTI to around $69, erasing most wartime gains as Hormuz tanker traffic returned to pre-conflict volumes 123. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported 72 ships carrying approximately 20 million barrels transited the strait in a single 24-hour period, and Kpler counted more than 20 tankers totaling 35 million barrels moving through since the June 17 US-Iran MOU took effect 34. Iran's IRGC Navy warned Thursday that transit would only be permitted via Tehran-designated routes, and a US official confirmed Iran struck a cargo vessel near Dahit, Oman that day, briefly reversing the price decline before markets resumed falling by June 26 3. The IEA reported UAE exports had recovered to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels in early June, while Persian Gulf exports broadly had reached approximately 75% of pre-war output 24.

Analysis
Market pricing has moved to reflect Hormuz supply recovery; a Brent close above $78 within ten days is unlikely. High confidence rests on Kpler transit data, Wright's 72-ship count, and analyst projections that, though drawing on common wire coverage, converge on continued bearish pressure. Markets absorbed Thursday's IRGC route-designation warning and the Dahit vessel strike before resuming the decline by Friday, confirming the risk premium has been substantially discounted against current volumes. The IRGC posture may instead represent Tehran testing MOU limits before renegotiation rather than operational interdiction intent, which would mean markets have mispriced reopening durability. Energy portfolio managers can unwind wartime hedges on schedule if Brent holds below $78 through the ten-day window. A close above signals residual IRGC repricing and warrants extended coverage through the MOU's August expiry.
4 sources
  1. Oil prices drop as more ships move through the Strait of Hormuz - Yahoo Finance
  2. Oil Prices Decline Amidst Improved Shipping in Hormuz Strait - GuruFocus
  3. Oil prices erase wartime gains as supply concerns ease with Hormuz tanker traffic resuming - CNBC
  4. Oil Prices Drop 4% As Strait Of Hormuz Shipping Recovers Following US-Iran Agreement - Marine Insight

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