Global Economy — 2026-04-26

Global Markets Brace as Hormuz Tensions Drive Oil Over $100 Per Barrel

Brent crude stands at 105.33 dollars per barrel as of April 26, having first surpassed 100 on March 8 and peaking at 126. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since February 28, when the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, prompting the IRGC to forbid passage, board and attack merchant ships, and lay sea mines. Since April 13, the US has maintained its own naval blockade of Iranian ports, creating a dual blockade that has idled hundreds of tankers and slashed daily global oil flows by an estimated 11 million barrels. The International Energy Agency characterized this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

Analysis
The IEA has characterized the dual-blockade disruption as the largest in oil market history, per a single ShareCafe synthesis, with that designation and the 11 million bpd figure both awaiting primary-source corroboration. At that volume, the Hormuz blockade exceeds the 1973 Arab embargo and 1990 Iraq-Kuwait crisis in absolute terms, completing the structural shift from consumer-price event to supply-side crisis. The dual-blockade structure, IRGC forbidding Hormuz passage since February 28 and US naval cordon of Iranian ports since April 13, creates a self-reinforcing equilibrium in which neither party can de-escalate without appearing to concede. Brent is likely to remain above $100 through end of May absent a ceasefire mechanism, though the 11 million bpd estimate may overstate effective disruption if Cape of Good Hope rerouting and pipeline diversions have already partially compensated; the next IEA monthly report will clarify. The crude shock compounds independently with the UAE yuan-swap and Japan chip-solvents developments.

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Global Markets Brace as Hormuz Tensions Drive Oil Over $100 - ShareCafe